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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CIN 19, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-I.Williams to CIN 26 for 7 yards (43-K.Hall).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.01 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model