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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.81 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model