Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:15) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CIN 14, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-I.Williams to CIN 33 for 19 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker; 89-B.Spann-Ford). PENALTY on CIN-26-T.Anderson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at CIN 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.62 EP
55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -2.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model