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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 19

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(:34) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.62 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model