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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 16-J.Karty 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 3, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP