4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 42

Los Angeles Rams 44 – Buffalo Bills 42

What Actually Happened

(:07) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.07 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.44 EP