4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 14 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(:56) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to LA 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.78 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP