4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 28 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(:40) 8-S.Martin punts 54 yards to SF 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Cowing pushed ob at SF 23 for 12 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.70 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP