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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(4:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings to BUF 17 for 26 yards (7-Ta.Johnson, 43-T.Bernard).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model