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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 25

Buffalo Bills 21 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at SF 7 for 18 yards (53-D.Winters).

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.59 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model