Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 94

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Buffalo Bills 21

(9:15) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to BUF 48, Center-46-T.Pepper. 29-B.Codrington to SF 44 for 8 yards (18-C.Conley).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.51 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 94, worth -5.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model