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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 4-J.Moody 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model