Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Baltimore Ravens 9

(1:38) 10-B.Mann punts 56 yards to BAL 25, Center-49-R.Lovato. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 36 for 11 yards (54-J.Trotter; 42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model