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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 17

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Baltimore Ravens 12

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.56 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model