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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Baltimore Ravens 12

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to BAL 30 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith; 14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.66 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model