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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model