Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(6:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers (36-T.McCollum).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.27 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model