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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Baltimore Ravens 12

What Actually Happened

(:01) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BAL 5, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-22-K.Ringo.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.84 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP