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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(5:06) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 41 for 2 yards (3-N.Smith; 98-J.Carter). PHI-17-N.Dean was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model