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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.39 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model