Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(6:10) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to PHI 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 32 for 4 yards (23-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model