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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 94

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to PHI 46, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-B.Covey to BAL 49 for 5 yards (23-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.48 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 94, worth -5.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.74 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 52, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP