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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to BAL 1, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-21-S.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.03 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP