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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 27 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model