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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 76

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to DAL 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model