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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model