4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 28

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 9-G.Gano 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.47 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model