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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model