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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(:47) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 24. 3-D.James to LAC 26 for 2 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP