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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 17

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.30 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model