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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 14

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 5-D.London pushed ob at LAC 9 for 5 yards (7-K.Fulton).

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model