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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(14:09) (Punt formation) 16-J.Scott pass short right to 84-S.Smartt pushed ob at LAC 39 for 3 yards (32-K.King).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model