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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 8

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(:07) 6-Y.Koo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model