Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(5:30) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to ATL 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 26-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 10 yards (58-S.Quarterman).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model