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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model