4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LAC 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model