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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 16

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model