4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 33

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 11-C.Dicker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model