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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox to NE 49 for 11 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.68 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model