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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 55

New England Patriots 24 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to IND 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 6-A.Gould to IND 20 for 3 yards (16-S.Takitaki).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model