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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 16

New England Patriots 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 13-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model