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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 85

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(14:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to NE 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 12 yards (41-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 43, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model