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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 7

New England Patriots 16 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(:20) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 7, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model