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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 36

New England Patriots 6 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 13-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP