Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 70

Denver Broncos 28 – Cleveland Browns 25

(8:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CLE 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 16-J.Darden ran ob at CLE 29 for no gain (52-J.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model