Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 86

Cleveland Browns 10 – Denver Broncos 7

(7:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to DEN 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 19-M.Mims to DEN 33 for 10 yards (20-P.Strong).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.99 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 86, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model