Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 70

Denver Broncos 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

(8:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to CLE 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.23 EP
63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model