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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 63

Denver Broncos 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to CLE 2, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 16-J.Darden to CLE 10 for 8 yards (26-D.Key).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP