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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to DEN 38, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.25 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model