4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.09 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP